Introduction to Climate Prediction

Jamais Cascio of World Changing points to a flash-based tutorial on the Basics of Climate Predictions from Oxford University’s Begbroke Science Park in collaboration with climateprediction.net the world’s largest climate prediction experiment.. If you are interested in learning how scientists make predictions about our future climate then this tutorial is for you. This would also make an excellent teaching tool. Teachers should refer to the schools section on the climateprediction.net website for related teaching resources.

The tutorial covers a definition of climate, things that effect climate, why climate prediction is complicated, what we can predict about climate change, and what the current predictions are.

Using a dice analogy, the tutorial differentiates between climate and weather. It links concepts of weather conditions with numerical values and then uses a dice-rolling paradigm to illustrate that climate is weather conditions over a long period of time.

Solar energy falling on the earth is used as an example of things that affect climate. The long-term increase in average temperatures is explained by illustrating how a larger portion of the Earth’s daily accumulation of solar energy is being retained instead of being radiated into space.
The complications of climate prediction are tied to chaos theory. Using population modeling of a rabbit community the different predictions using stable and chaotic models are illustrated.

A bell-shaped curve is used to illustrate what sort of predictions we can make about climate. The viewer is introduced to the likelihood based on where the values lie on a bell curve.

A world map allows the viewer to select a continent and see what sort of temperature changes will happen in two different scenarios, each with results being shown for fifty and one hundred years out. The scenarios used are for a fossil fuel-oriented future with high-levels of greenhouse gases and a sustainable future with reduced levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall this tutorial has just the right amount of complexity to solidly address the temperature changes linked to global climate change. It helps to deflate some of the more outrageous claims, but still manages to convey the sense that changes are coming and what the likely dimensions of those changes will be.

A CD-ROM version is also available. Contact enquiries@begbroke.ox.ac.uk .


>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
That's the whole problem with science. You've got a bunch of empiricists
trying to describe things of unimaginable wonder. - Calvin

Genetically Modified Peas Cause Allergic Response

For the first time scientists have detected an immune response to proteins coming from a plant genetically modified to be pest resistant.

For almost a decade scientists at Australia’s national research organisation, CSIRO, have been developing a genetically modified version of the Field Pea (Pisum sativum) that is resistant to the pea weevil Bruchus pisorum, which lays its eggs on the pea pods causing significant crop damage in developing countries. They inserted a gene from the common bean which produces a protein capable of killing pea weevil pests.

However, when the scientists at CSIRO tested the modified Field Pea by feeding it to laboratory mice they found the mice developed antibodies specific to the protein built by the newly inserted gene. When the mice where later exposed to the purified protein through injection or inhalation via a "multiple immune challenge" procedure designed to determine if the immune system is tolerant to a protein they showed a hypersensitive skin response, while the airway-exposed mice developed airway inflammation and mild lung damage. The damage was significant and surprising enough that the entire decade-long project Field Pea project was cancelled.

Paul Foster of the Australian National University in Canberra, who led the "multiple immune challenge" work points out that this result shows the need for improvements in screening requirements for genetically engineered plants, to ensure comprehensive tests are carried out.

For more details see the original article from NewScientist.

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
Only presidents, editors, and people with tapeworms have the right to use the editorial "we."

RocketPost-powered

I'm trying out RocketPost blog software. It's pretty cool...

Scientists as Citizens

Scientists as Citizens
Quantum Nescimus
(What a Lot We Don’t Know)

As I watch the on-going debate between rational and religious believers I am struck by the incompatibility of both positions. We seem to have reduced the two positions to their extremes. Perhaps in an effort to simplify the choice between the two as if they are mutually exclusive.

While listening to show #48 of G’Day World from ThePodcastNetwork I was introduced to John Cornforth by way of Sir Harry Kroto’s talk about science to group middle-school students. Sir Harry is one third of the team that shared the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 1966 for the discovery of Bucky Balls and the family of similar structures.

Sir Harry’s talk gave high praise to John Cornforth for the essay/speech Cornforth delivered to the Royal Australian Chemical Institute on the occasion of its 75th anniversary in September 1992. The speech was entitled Scientists as Citizens and much of what Cornforth had to say is still very relevant as we are still debating the place of Science in Society.

Cornforth points out that Science is the art of the probable with probable used in the old sense of testable, not our current definition: likely. He illuminates the duality that scientists operate under: scientific research pursues goals not always perceived as of immediate public benefit, yet when scientific discoveries are put into general use by society; it is the scientists who are blamed when unintended consequences of their work appear in society.

Scientists operate with three dilemmas dogging them: Secrecy, History, and Truth. Secrecy stems from competitive and security pressures that seek to prevent the collaborative nature of research from asserting itself. Science works best when information flows freely among scientists regardless of nationality or business affiliation. But, competitive pressure and national security concerns often interfere with this information Science works best when information flows freely among scientists regardless of nationality or business affiliation. But, competitive pressure and national security concerns often interfere with this information flow.

The History dilemma stems from scientists’ unique historical perspective. They understand the historical significance of facts in the face of the pressures for short term gains, profits or progress. For example historically scientists know that when a species is presented with an abundance of a resource, the resource is exploited to exhaustion followed by the species dying off. Scientists are too much the minority to convince society at large of the problem this portends for the future of the human species.

Cornforth distinguishes between Public truth and Private truth. Public truth is that which is accurately recorded without fabrication or distortion regardless of the conclusions such truths bring. In contrast, private truth is influenced by emotions. The euphoria of a new discovery observation must co-exist with the cold examination of the public truth.

Science and Scientists don’t escape unscathed from Cornforth’s discerning pen. He points out that the simplification required to measure results from discrete experiments often miss the complex interactions present in natural systems science is trying to quantify and explain. Not accounting for these interactions can lead to unexpected results when the results of scientific experiments are practiced outside the scientist’s laboratory.

He also cites the exponential growth of disciplines within science as the cause of the narrowing of domain knowledge among scientists. As more and more scientists specialize, it becomes harder for ideas to cross-fertilize one another across disciplines.

Finally, Cornforth concludes that scientists must put their case before a court where there is no judge, no jury and no rules of law and where regard for the truth is often a hindrance. He wants science education to include lessons in critical thinking. Students should be trained to ask the “Who says so? How do you know? What’s missing?” questions. Cornforth believes that students trained to be skeptical will make better members of society.

I recommend that everyone read Cornforth’s speech via the link below. His words have helped me begin to reconcile the conflict Science and the Society in which it is embedded.

References:
John Cornforth’s Speech to the Royal Australian Chemical Institute

John Cornforth’s Autobiography page from the Nobel Prize web site

Background information on John Cornforth via Google
Sir Harold Kroto’s Autobiography from the Nobel Prize web site


>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
"Criminal Lawyer" is a redundancy.

Live Music to the Space Station

On Sunday November 13th, Paul McCartney will provide live wakeup music to the two astronauts abort the International Space Station. Wakeup music is a NASA tradition where on-orbit crews are woken up with various pieces of music to start their workday. Previously, One of McCartney’s songs, Good Day Sunshine was played as wakeup music for shuttle Discovery’s STS-114 on the August 9th morning of their landing. "Since people were first awakened on the moon by mission control, wakeup songs have been a space tradition to brighten the crew's day and get them off to a great start," said astronaut Eileen Collins, who commanded Discovery.

"I was extremely proud to find out that one of my songs was played for the crew of Discovery this summer," McCartney said. "In our concert we hope to repay the favor." McCartney is nearing the end of his 11-week "US" tour.

Original News Release


>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
There is a difference between celibate and simply not getting any.
It's like the difference between fast and starve.

Ubiquitous City

After reading the piece in Daily Wireless (based on NY Times article) about all the cities/developments around the world where computing and sensing infrastructure is built into a new city I have to ask: Where is the American version? Are we so privacy paranoid and luddite that no one thinks this sort of development is what the future will look like? And as ususal America is soundly ignoring the trend.

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
Obstacles are what you see when you take your eyes off of your goal - Vince Lombardi

Free to be Me, Too!

You are a Social Liberal (71% permissive) and an... Economic Liberal (20% permissive) You are best described as a: Socialist Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid Also: The OkCupid Dating Persona Test

Who Am I?

Saw this post on Wil Wheaton's blog and had to try the quiz on TK421's blog for myself. Kinda surprised at the results.

>JjV<

---------------------------------------------------
Reality is for people who can't handle drugs.

What is Podcasting

There is a lot of buzz circulating these days about podcasting. I have yet to see a decent definition and description of podcasting that correctly describes podcasting in its entirety. So in this article I will lay out what podcasting is and how it works

The term podcasting refers to audio files produced for distribution and to a method of delivering audio files, typically in MP3 format to the MP3 player of your choice. When podcasts are mentioned in the popular press they usually referenced as the content you receive not the method by which you receive them.

The podcasting mechanism was devised to enable delivery of audio files to your MP3 player with out a significant effort on you part, in effect simulating a broadcast to MP3 players, hence the “casting” part of podcasting. The podcast files are listed in a special file called a podcast feed. The feed file is updated every time a new podcast file is made available for download. To receive these specialized broadcasts, you typically run a specialized piece of software on your computer. The software is variously known as a podcasting client or a podcatcher. For the podcatcher to receive files you have to tell the podcatcher the address of the podcast feed. These addresses are usually found on the web site associated with the podcast you are interested in.

Once you have given your podcatcher the feed address, the podcatcher will download the feed and look for all the podcast files listed in it. It will present you with a list of files and generally download only the newest podcast file in the feed. The podcatcher will remember that is has downloaded this particular podcast file and not download it again. The podcatcher will regularly download the feed file and check it to see if any new podcast files have been added. When if finds new ones, it downloads those and adds them to the list of podcasts already downloaded so they won’t be downloaded again.

The podcatcher downloads the podcast MP3 files to a directory structure starting with the directory you told the podcatcher to receive downloads to. This is typically done when you install the podcatcher software. Below the podcast receive directory the podcatcher will create a new directory named according to the name of the podcast you are receiving. Into the directory with the podcast’s name will go all the MP3 files that are downloaded by the podcatcher.

Where do you find podcast feeds. Take a look at your podcatching software. Many have directories of podcasts built in to help you find podcasts on topics of interest to you. You can also do an Internet search for Podcast Directories to find sites that list podcast feeds.

Now that you have these MP3 files on your computer you can listen to them on the computer or copy them to your portable MP3 player to listen to away from the computer. The process of transferring files to your music player varies based on what MP3 player you have. With some players the process is tied into the synchronization of files between your MP3 player software running on your computer and the MP3 player, itself. In other cases it is a manual process where you start your MP3 player software on your computer and then manually transfer the files from your computer to the MP3 player.

If this article has been helpful or you would like to see subsequent articles with more details and resources, leave me a comment or drop an email to johniac52+pod at gmail.com.


I don't need anyone to drive me crazy... I'm already within walking distance.

Endeavour Returning to Shuttle Fleet

The space shuttle Endeavour is returning to active duty status joining the other orbiters Discovery and Atlantis. After putting 900,000 man-hours to refurbish and update her systems, technicians turned on the electrical power to Endeavour for the first time today.

NASA regularly schedules individual shuttles for major modification periods. A major modification period is a two year long upgrade program in which a given shuttle has its major systems upgraded and new technologies incorporated. Endeavour’s planned major modification period began in late 2003. To date, eighty-five of the planned 124 modifications have been completed. The modifications included return-to-flight mandated changes, inspection of 150 miles of wiring, and bonding more than 1,000 thermal protection system tiles.

The cockpit now sports an advanced digital display system that replaces the myriad of screens, gauges and dials that used to make up the cockpit environment. A Global Positioning System (GPS) system to improve the shuttle's landing capability was also installed. It will allow Endeavour to make a landing at any runway long enough to handle the shuttle. The previous system only allowed for landings at military bases.

Endeavour's previous modification was completed in March 1997. Endeavour is beginning 10-12 months of launch processing and power-up testing for a future flight, possibly late next year.

Visit NASA's Space Shuttle Program on the Web For the latest information on the Space Shuttle.
Source: NASA Press Release

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
That's the whole problem with science. You've got a bunch of
empiricists trying to describe things of unimaginable wonder. - Calvin

Gulf Coast Rebuild

The horrendous destruction wrought by hurricanes Katrina and Rita has generated a huge amount of debris along the Gulf Coast and some miles inland. Disposal of all this wreckage and debris is going to a monumental task.

I have uncovered a couple of technologies that might be used to convert the debris into feedstocks and building materials to aid in reconstruction, or at least turn the debris into useful materials or energy sources.

A company called Prime Environmental International (PEI) has the technology to process hurricane debris and output six different building components. The web site http://www.recyclinghomes.com/ lists the products created as :

• Product 1- Replaces OSB sheathing with four (4) non-wood sheet products sizes: 7/16"x 4'x 8' - 7116"x 8'x 24' - 1/2"x 4'x 8' - 1/2"x 8'x 24'; (all standard thicknesses will also be available in 4'x 8' sheets)
• Product 2- Replaces door frames, doors, window frames, and windows with a PEI engineered (preformed) molded non-wood product;
• Product 3- Replaces interior and exterior walls with a high-density product;
• Product 4- Replaces structural framing with a solid interlocking structure;
• Product 5- Replaces roofing with a fire retardant insulated roofing panel ;
• Product 6- Replaces foundation walls with a high density waterproof material
  

Assuming all these products are environmentally acceptable, this would ease the burden on virgin resources considerably. Additionally, it wopuld provide employment for a large number of people in the affected areas. The web link above has the details on the processing and materials requirements.

For other waste and debris not suitable for the PEI process I would point you to the company Changing World Technologies (CWT). They have a thermal conversion process (TCP) that parallels the natural process that produce oil, but at a greatly accelerated rate. For and overview of TCP and CWT in the scheme of things read this article from Discover magazine here or here.

CWT has a nice graphic showing how the process works.

The Wikipedia TCP entry also has a chart showing what the TCP process can produce based on the waste type input.

The oil and gas could be further refined to produce adhesives, binders, asphalt shingles and other building chemicals needed to compliment the building materials produced by PEI.

CWT’s web site lists the general categories of materials that can be produced from a waste stream using TCP.

So we have an opportunity to rebuild the Gulf Coast and its environs while minimizing the impact on our existing resource base. We save energy costs associated with shipping debris out of the region and shipping new building materials into the region.

Even if this plan never materializes for the Gulf Coast, we should be pursuing these technologies and maturing them to the point where they can be rapidly deployed into any disaster area to speed rebuilding and recovery efforts.

Shiny

Saw Serenity last night with #1 daughter and some of her friends. The theater was packed, but no one in costume, , although it was an early-ish show. The movie itself was really good, the effects were well done and the story line had some really cool twists to it. It was great to seeing the characters again.

No spoilers to see here... Move along

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
The most merciful thing in the world ... is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents. - H. P. Lovecraft

New Crackberry

As a firmly addicted Blackberry user, I was excited to hear from Engadget/Pinstack about the Blackberry 8700 pictured at left.

Quick Stats:
Quadband GSM/GPRS/EDGE
- Speaker Phone
- Bluetooth
- Memory: 16MB RAM / 64MB Flash
- Polyphonic Ringtones
- Support MP3 ringtones
- Updated Form Factor
- Full QWERTY keypad
- Dedicated Send & End Keys
- Mute Key
- On/Off Key
- 2 User-Definable Keys
This blackberry should come with a 320x240 VGA Colour LCD and should feature a 312Mhz processor, It should be annouced to markets sometime the end of this month, available to carriers maybe arround the end of the year or early next year....

Gimme one NOW!!!
>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
The American public knows what it wants,and deserves to get it good and hard. - H.L.Menkin

weblog comments

Here's a link to Lifehacker's list of Comment dos and don'ts...
Hint... Hint....

>JjV<
------------------------------------------
2.998e10 cm/sec; It's not just a good idea, it's the law.

weblog comments

Here's a link to Lifehacker's list of Comment dos and don'ts...
Hint... Hint....

>JjV<
------------------------------------------
2.998e10 cm/sec; It's not just a good idea, it's the law.

gSpot?

So Google has announced their WiFi beta service.

Are the going to call their WiFi hot spots gSpots?

>JjV<
-------------------------------------------------
Time is an illusion perpetrated by the manufacturers of space.

ectoPlasm

Here's my first post using the ecto blogging tool.

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
A guy will pay $2 for a $1 item he needs. A woman will pay $1 for a $2 item that she doesn't need.

Three Strikes

Three pieces of pretty bad environmental news this week:

Hurricanes Amped up by Warmer Oceans
A news release from the Georgia Institute of technology and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) warns that Global Warming is boosting hurricane intensity. The Science Daily web site summarized the article this way: The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s, according to a study by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The shift occurred as global sea surface temperatures have increased over the same period.
You can find the article from Science Daily here and the original work from NCAR here and the original paper from Peter Webster of Georgia Tech in PDF format here.
So as the oceans warm up the hurricanes that form over them will be stronger, because the oceans will have more heat in them.

Methane
Methane is a serious greenhouse gas and can also react with oxygen to produce carbon dioxide. SpaceRef.com points to research done by Dave Kemp and supervisors Drs. Angela Coe and Anthony Cohen, of Open University along with Dr. Lorenz Schwark of the University of Cologne indicates at least three massive burps of methane gas in the geologic past have triggered extinction events by raising the earth’s temperature by 10°C. The report goes on: The methane came from gas hydrate, a frozen mixture of water and methane found in huge quantities on the seabed. This hydrate suddenly melted, allowing the methane to escape.
So here’s another potential upheaval from Ocean Warming: There are still significant quantities methane hydrate on the ocean floor off the coast of the Carolinas. The U.S. Geological Survey describes these deposits as A pair of relatively small areas, each about the size of the State of Rhode Island, shows intense concentrations of gas hydrates. USGS scientists estimate that these areas contain more than 1,300 trillion cubic feet of methane gas, an amount representing more than 70 times the 1989 gas consumption of the United States.

Methane Hydrate (or Methane Clathrate) is stable at a variety of pressures and temperatures with the release volume accelerating abruptly past 3°C.

So is there a scenario where ocean warming caused by global warming brings the deep ocean temperatures around the Clathrate deposits to a point where massive amounts of methane get released into our atmosphere? I don’t know, but it doesn’t sound too implausible to me. I would be pleased to hear counter arguments. For an interesting description of what a massive methane release could do read Bruce Sterling’s classic 1995 novel Heavy Weather.

How Long Can You Tread Water…..
An article on Physorg.com cites a study by Mark Serreze, a scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at Colorado University that indicates that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming that will further accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice creating a rise in ocean levels.

So we now have the rate of sea level rising rising as more and more earth is stripped of its ice covering. My guess is that all of the estimates about how long this defrosting process will take are woeful underestimates due to these unforeseen acceleration mechanisms.

Collaborative Katrina Timeline

Wanna know how we created the clusterf*ck known as Hurricane Katrina Relief?  Over at Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall is hosting a collaborative effort to build a timeline.

Read it and weep, or better still DO SOMETHING……….

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably why so few engage in it. -Henry Ford
     

Hey DHS…

How come we never implemented the National Tech Corps?  Its part of the federal Homeland Security Act, you never implemented.

If the National Tech Corps were a reality, then the communications and computing infrastructure of New Orleans would come back to life much quicker.  Who knows…  Maybe even lives would have been saved.

Here’s the link from Doc Searl’s weblog that triggered this rant.

>JjV<
---------------------------------------------------
There's never time to do it right, but there's always time to do it over. - Murphy's Law